Who will win in Ghana?

The election will take place on Sunday, Dec. 7. The popular opinion seems to be, in a case of “if it ain’t broke,” that the current ruling party, the New Patriotic Party (NPP), will take the day again. They have the advantage of name recognition, recent successes to point to (even seeming to take credit in ads for the national soccer team, the Black Stars, earning its first World Cup visit) and a great deal more money.

Meanwhile, there is the belief among the opposition that the NPP didn’t fulfill promises, including, among other things, free education, which remains a dream for many Ghanaians. Others are concerned that a third term for the party, this early in the evolving democracy, could help bring about what most fear almost as much as violence, namely, the installation of a de facto oligarchy. After two decades with its previous leader, Flt. Lt. Jerry John Rawlings, Ghanaians are on alert for the signs.

Rawlings came to power by military take-over in 1981 and then again in 1982. In 1992, pressure from inside and abroad forced him to undertake a referendum on a new constitution and end the prohibition of opposition political parties. But the groups were at the time deeply divided, too divided, it turns out, to be very effective campaigners, and Rawlins was elected with 60 percent of the vote. He was reelected in 1996.

Today, there are eight parties vying for voters’ attention, but only four major parties, and only two of which are given much chance of winning: the aforementioned NPP of Kufuor and the National Democratic Congress (NDC), Rawlings’ party.

For the first time in the country’s history, candidates from the top four parties, the NPP; the NDC; the Convention People’s Party (CPP), the party of Kwame Nkumrah, the author of the country’s independence in 1957; and the People’s National Convention (PNC), met in two highly anticipated debates. And just last week, Cape Coast hosted the one vice-presidential debate.

It remains to be seen if the election will unfold as peacefully as these high-profile meetings. There has been scattered violence over the past few months, principally in the north. And there were the occasional fights even in Cape Coast during the NPP rally last week. But thus far serious conflagrations have been avoided.

As one editorial writer wrote, “When the election is over, let us put away the party flags and fly only the flag of mother Ghana.”

(Picture: The candidates for president in Ghana)